There has been much debate on where the bottom for bitcoin is. Vinny Lingham believes that if the price drops below $3000, there will be serious consequences. The CEO of Civic states that if bitcoin goes under $3000, the crypto winter is bound to become nuclear. Linghman’s worried that the crypto winter might just be the beginning.
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If we break below $3000 for Bitcoin, “crypto winter” will become “crypto nuclear winter”… https://t.co/sS83cl6Em1
— Vinny Lingham (@VinnyLingham) January 28, 2019
If the last two months have showed anything, is that there are huge buy walls by major crypto exchanges. Bitcoin has been relatively stable as it hovered around between $3500 and $4000.
The crypto winter is long
Despite that short period of stability, Bitcoin was close to a dip below $3000 on December 14th 2018. That’s the time where the currency reached its 12-month low at $3122. This is where the buy walls by major crypto exchanges became visible.
The CEO of Three Arrows Capital, Su Zhu back in December 12th:
“Coinbase’s buy walls are now the biggest. A break will inevitably require filling the fiat-backed bids. Derivatives selling will simply lead to funding becoming as negative as possible.”
2 days after his statement, Bitcoin reached the yearly low, but almost instantly recovered back to $3300 thanks to the huge buy walls on major exchanges. Mark Dow is a trader who managed to short all of his Bitcoin near the $20 000 all-time high. He recalls that the last time Bitcoin demonstrated a prolonged period of stability, the result was a 50% price decline.
This is why Dow thinks the bear market has probably not hit the bottom yet. He stated:
“There is a period of dead silence for several weeks now. The last time there was such silence was when the price was at $6500 and we all know how that turned out. If we learn from the patterns, we should expect a very sharp drop again soon.”
Kyle Samani is a co-founder and general partner at Multicoin Capital. According to him, the bear market is not over until a lot of exchanges shut down. Earlier this week, the crypto exchange Liqui announced its shutdown in a message to its users.
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The exchange purge has started. @Liqui_Exchange is closing.
I believe many more, especially smaller exchanges will follow. The bull market forced them to make large investments in their IT infrastructure, and the bear market dried out the trading volume.
— Jimmy McShill (@JimmyMcShill) January 28, 2019
In the message, McShill said he believes that many more exchanges are set to follow. Dominant cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have a relatively high market cap. Small market cap coins however, see a huge reduction the daily volume and this is just in the last 2 months.
With trade activity declining across many major crypto markets like Japan, South Korea and the United States, exchanges are bound to have liquidity issues on their hands. ICOs are also in a terrible state and many investors believe that this bear market might just be the end of the crypto winter and the beginning of the nuclear winter.
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